LME Nickel Stocks nochange 0 MT to 274,236 MT

• Markets: The Dow soared to a record close yesterday while the Nasdaq dropped, as investors rotated out of tech and into healthcare and finance. Broadcom was the main culprit for the tech sector’s tough day—it stumbled nearly 13% after reporting an underwhelming forecast for its AI chips.

Bolton reportedly pleads guilty to mishandling classified info. Former Trump administration national security advisor turned Trump critic John Bolton reached a dealwith the Justice Department to plead guilty to one count of mishandling classified materials, the Associated Press reported. Bolton was charged last year with 18 counts of improper use of classified info after he allegedly shared it with family members while writing his memoir. As part of the deal, Bolton would have to pay a $2.25 million fine but could avoid jail time, depending on a judge’s decision. A longtime Republican diplomat, Bolton served in Trump’s first administration for more than a year before the president fired him in 2019 over foreign policy disagreements. Bolton then published a book that was critical of Trump’s decision-making.—AE

Hezbollah rejected the latest ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The deal, which had been brokered by the Trump administration, stipulated that Hezbollah would withdraw from the region of Lebanon that borders Israel and completely stop attacks. But Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, did not participate in the negotiations and refused to agree to the terms before the ceasefire even took effect. In a statement yesterday, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said a ceasefire would need to include Israel stopping attacks and withdrawing from Lebanon. Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz said yesterday that the military operation in Lebanon would continue “at this stage.”—HVL

Kevin O’Leary scales back his Utah data center, following backlash. Shark Tankstar Kevin O’Leary is saying “you’re dead to me” to much of his proposed 40,000-acre data center after community members and some lawmakers protested the project. In a letter to the Utah Senate, O’Leary said he’d cut the proposed acreage in half in response to the backlash. Critics were concerned with the data center’s potential impact on land, water, and air quality, which O’Leary said were exaggerated. It’s perhaps the most high-profile example of the mounting resistance to the construction of AI data centers across the US.

Indonesia Tightens Supply, Driving Price Rally

Indonesia plays a dominant role in the nickel market. The country accounts for roughly 50% to two-thirds of global nickel supply, making its policies a major price driver. However, this year, the country reduced its nickel production quota to around 260–270 million tonnes, down from 379 million tonnes in 2025.

This represents a sharp cut of more than 100 million tonnes, or roughly a 30%–34% reduction in output.

Nickel futures recently pushed higher, hitting a major peak of $19,587 on May 6. This marks the highest price level for the metal since mid-2024. While the market has since balanced out a bit, prices as of June 4, 2026, are holding steady around $18,800 per tonne. This slight drop shows that even though the market is still very high compared to last year, supply constraints are causing short-term price adjustments.

The surge comes as Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, tightens mining quotas. The move is limiting supply and raising concerns across industries that depend on nickel, including electric vehicles (EVs), stainless steel, and energy storage.

The goal is to support higher prices, conserve high-grade ore reserves, and align mining output with domestic processing capacity.

These changes are already tightening supply. Nickel ore shortages are pushing up costs for producers, especially in Indonesia’s nickel pig iron (NPI) and battery-grade materials sectors.

At the same time, disruptions in sulfur supply—a key input for nickel processing—are adding further pressure. This combination is tightening the global supply chain.

Nickel Prices Climb as Supply Risks Grow

The impact on prices has been immediate.

Nickel prices have:

• Risen by about 10% in recent weeks
• Increased by more than 22% year-on-year
• Reached levels close to $20,000 per tonne

This rally reflects both short-term supply disruptions and longer-term structural changes in the market.

Analysts expect nickel prices to remain supported in 2026. Research firm BMI raised its average price forecast to around $16,600 per tonne, up from earlier estimates.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has projected prices closer to $17,200 per tonne on average, reflecting tighter supply conditions. However, there is still uncertainty. Some forecasts show a continued global surplus of nickel, which could limit how high prices can go.

• MORE DETAILS: Nickel Prices Hit $18,000 in 2026 Amid Global Oversupply, US Boosts Domestic Supply Chain

EV Demand and Energy Transition Drive Long-Term Growth

Nickel is a key material for the global energy transition.

It is widely used in:

• Electric vehicle batteries (especially high-nickel chemistries)
• Stainless steel production
• Renewable energy storage systems

Demand from EVs is a major growth driver. High-nickel batteries offer higher energy density, which allows a longer driving range.

Global EV sales continue to rise, and battery demand is expected to grow strongly through 2030. This is increasing pressure on nickel supply chains. At the same time, governments and companies are investing heavily in clean energy technologies. This is further boosting demand for battery metals.

However, there are also shifts in technology. Some EV makers are moving toward lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which use less or no nickel. This could slow demand growth in some segments.

ESG Pressure Reshapes Nickel Production

Nickel production is facing rising environmental and ESG scrutiny. Mining and processing nickel can have significant environmental impacts, including high energy use, land degradation, waste generation, and processing emissions.

Indonesia’s policy changes are partly aimed at improving control over the industry. The government wants to reduce environmentally harmful practices and increase domestic value-added processing.

At the same time, global buyers are under pressure to source “cleaner” nickel. And major mining companies and battery producers are now:

• Setting net-zero targets
• Investing in lower-carbon processing technologies
• Improving traceability in supply chains

Some companies are also developing new projects outside Indonesia to diversify supply and reduce geopolitical risk.

Market Outlook: Tight Supply vs Structural Uncertainty

The nickel market is entering a new phase. On one hand, supply is tightening due to:

• Indonesia’s production cuts
• Higher input costs (such as sulfur)
• Policy-driven constraints

On the other hand, long-term uncertainty remains:

• A projected global surplus of over 200,000 tonnes in 2026
• Rapid growth in Indonesian refining capacity
• Shifts in battery technology away from nickel

Some projections suggest that new high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects could add up to 600,000 tonnes of refined nickel supply by 2026, potentially pressuring prices later.

This creates a mixed outlook. Prices may stay high in the short term, but are likely to be volatile over time. And therefore, for investors and industry players, the key takeaway is clear: supply diversification and strategic positioning—both within and outside dominant producers like Indonesia—will define the next phase of the global nickel market.

Answer to today's trivia question: Chicken Tikka Masala

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The USDA announced this week that the New World screwworm—a flesh-eating fly that had been successfully kept out of the US for decades after wreaking havoc on cattle herds—has entered the country.

So far, it’s only one case. The agency’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) found a three-week-old calf in Texas with the larvae, marking the first case of screwworms in the state since 1966.

Screwworms are parasites that lay hundreds of eggs in a wound or orifice of a warm-blooded animal; those eggs then hatch and start eating the animal’s flesh. Beginning in the 1950s, the USDA was able to create a biological barrier by releasing millions of sterilized male flies from airplanes and pushing the screwworms south to Panama’s Darién Gap. But a year ago, cattle industry groups sounded the alarms about the risk of a return.

• The USDA claims that screwworms entering the US this year was inevitable and said it has invested in a new $750 million screwworm facility in South Texas. But the agency is also still navigating DOGE’s large workforce cuts, including 248 employees from the APHIS department in Texas.
• Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller accused the USDA on Wednesday of moving too slowly.

Big picture: Even a small infestation could jeopardize the already strained beef industry. The US cattle herd is at its lowest levels in 75 years.