LME Nickel Stocks down 1,104 MT to 274,236 MT

The yen flirted again with the important 160-per-dollar level as the fresh U.S.-Iran exchanges boosted the greenback. Japanese authorities have spent some $73 billion in yen-buying intervention recently to support the currency after it previously weakened past that point.

Oil prices and bond yields have pushed higher as hostilities in the Gulf resume - but you’d be hard pressed to find many signs of concern in AI-obsessed stock markets. Wall Street’s SOX chip index jumped more than 5% on Tuesday as the wider S&P 500 eked out another record closing high, gaining for the ninth straight day.

According to Deutsche Bank, a 10th gain for the S&P 500 on Wednesday would be the longest such streak in more than 30 years.

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Is it hot in here or is it just the weakening trade winds over the Pacific? El Niño, a naturally occurring weather pattern, now has an 80% chance of developing by the end of August, according to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization. The phenomenon could have wide-ranging effects on the global economy, hitting everything from trade to agriculture to energy.

What is El Niño? We’ll never be able to harness Bill Nye’s raw passion for meteorological phenomena, but we can try. Every two to seven years, trade winds that normally blow from east to west weaken or reverse course over the Pacific Ocean, pushing warm waters usually headed toward Asia back to the Americas. No one is totally sure why this happens, just that when it does, it stirs up a whole bunch of weather and storm drama around the globe:

• El Niño’s effects are varied across different regions. It usually increases the temperature and dries out areas like Australia and southeast Asia, making them more susceptible to wildfires and droughts.
• Meanwhile, the southern US and Central America become more at risk of flooding.
• It can also disrupt normal weather patterns, and make hurricanes and monsoons more extreme or unpredictable.

Now put a “Super” in front of it

The odds of a “Super El Niño,” which occurs when the water in a specific area of the Pacific rises above two degrees celsius, have also jumped from 25% to 37%, according to the National Weather Service. A normal El Niño is classified by only a half a degree celsius temperature increase.

Some data suggests that a deep wave of abnormally warm water could push Pacific Ocean temps higher than they’ve been in a decade, resulting in a record-setting year for global temperatures in 2027.

Big picture: Scientists have warned that this El Niño could be supercharged by the warming climate, exacerbating already strained supply chains for everything from fertilizer to fuel. One study from Dartmouth estimated that in the five-year fallout from the 1997–1998 El Niño, there was a $5.7 trillion drop in global GDP.

Trump signed a scaled-back executive order on AI. After weeks of “will he or won’t he,” President Trump quietly issued an executive order yesterday that calls for some oversight of the AI industry amid concerns over cybersecurity threats, Politico reported. Originally, Trump planned to sign an order directing the government to review new AI models 90 days before they’re released to the public. But he reportedly changed his mind at the last minute, concerned that the order would give China a competitive advantage and demanded too much regulation after he had made deregulation a policy priority. The order Trump signed yesterday reduces the voluntary government review to 30 days before public release, but is otherwise largely the same as the version he nixed last month.

Trump named Bill Pulte acting spy chief. Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) who’s best known for accusing the president’s political enemies of mortgage fraud, will replace Tulsi Gabbard as the director of national intelligence, President Trump announced yesterday. Democrats and a few Republicans criticized the move, pointing out that Pulte has no known intelligence, national security, or military experience. Pulte made headlines last year when he alleged that New York Attorney General Letitia James, California Sen. Adam Schiff, and Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook each committed fraud. He will reportedly continue running the housing agency and serving as chairman of mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while acting as intelligence chief.

Gold Overtakes US Treasuries as Top Global Reserve Asset, ECB ReportsGold now accounts for 27% of global central bank reserve assets at end-2025, up from 20% a year earlier, according to the European Central Bank. The rise reflects a combination of sustained central bank buying and higher prices, pushing bullion past US Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset. The shift represents a structural reallocation in sovereign balance sheets, not a cyclical trade.

Answer to today's trivia question: World War I